There is no strong, resilient Australia without deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions
An open letter on the scientific basis for the links between climate change and bushfires in Australia.
This open letter was supported by 446 scientists with research expertise across the fields of climate, fire and weather science. We thank all of the co-signatories who supported the statement. We will be in touch via email in the near future.
If you wish to contact us, please use the email addresses listed at the end of this statement.
Acknowledgement of Country
We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the lands and seas across Australia. We recognise their continuing connection to Country. We acknowledge their continued custodianship of the continent, including the role of Indigenous knowledge and practices in land management and Indigenous fire burning. We pay our respects to Elders past, present, and emerging, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
Executive summary and call for action
Scientific evidence unequivocally links human-caused climate change to the increasing risk of frequent and severe bushfires in the Australian landscape. That same science tells us these extreme events will only grow worse in the future without genuine concerted action to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases.
We, the undersigned climate, weather and fire scientists, call on our country’s leaders and policymakers to develop science-informed policies to combat human-caused climate change. To be successful, these policies must urgently reduce Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions and lead to constructive engagement and agreements with other world leaders for coordinated global climate action.
We call on our leaders to unite to develop non-partisan, long-term policies that will enable the managed transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 that the scientific evidence shows is required to avoid dangerous human-caused climate change. The science is clear. It is time to show leadership and set a clear path to protect our country and way of life for future generations.
This statement summarises the scientific basis for the links between climate change and bushfires in Australia, and the climate action that is required to limit further worsening of our bushfire risk and build a stronger and more resilient Australia.
- Human-caused climate change is worsening fire-weather and bushfires in southern and eastern Australia.
- Observations show a trend towards more frequent and extreme fire-weather conditions during summer, and an earlier start to the fire season, particularly in southern and eastern Australia.
- Australia’s year-to-year climate variability is being altered by climate change. This variability, combined with regional rainfall trends and human-caused warming, contributed to the extremely dangerous bushfire conditions this summer.
- Dry fuel loads related to widespread drought provided conditions for extensive burning in the 2019/20 bushfires.
- Australia’s dangerous fire-weather is virtually certain to worsen in the future with ongoing human-induced climate change, making fire management increasingly challenging.
- Australia is part of the Paris Agreement and has a commitment to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which would significantly reduce the intensification of Australia’s bushfire risk along with many other climate change risks. The current emission reduction targets of Australia and the world are insufficient and will commit us to 3°C or more of warming by the end of this century.
The scientific basis
The severity, destructiveness and unprecedented scale of the 2019/20 bushfires in eastern and southern Australia1 have generated public discussion on the role of climate change in this crisis. This statement summarises the scientific knowledge on how human-induced (anthropogenic) climate change is affecting bushfires in Australia.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the risk of fires in various regions of the world, including Australia2-6. Fire activity is controlled by four limiting factors7: (i) a fuel load (vegetation biomass); (ii) the fuel being dry enough to burn; (iii) an ignition source (anthropogenic or lightning); and (iv) weather that is conducive to carrying that fire through the landscape (e.g. high temperatures, wind speed and low humidity). Climate influences all four of these factors7-10.
Australia’s 2019 climate in perspective
Australia’s climate is warming as part of an unequivocal global warming trend11,12. Human activities have so far caused 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels13.
2019 was Australia’s hottest and driest year on record14. The average temperature for the whole of Australia in 2019 was 1.5°C above the 1961–1990 climatological average, and 1.9°C above the 1911–1940 average, noting that the national temperature dataset commences in 1910.
Drought and fuel loads
Drought, high temperatures and low relative humidity all lead to low fuel moisture content. Extremely hot and dry conditions in 2019 were preceded by a widespread and sustained drought across eastern Australia that began in 2017. Drought conditions meant that fuel availability (leaf shedding) and fuel dryness created ideal conditions for extensive burning at the start of this fire season across millions of hectares of forest, including temperate forests and rainforest ecosystems.
Drought in southern and eastern Australia in recent years has occurred against a backdrop of long-term precipitation decline across southern Australia. Cool-season rainfall (April–October) in southwest Australia has declined by 20% since 1970, and in southeast of Australia there has been an 11% decline since the late 1990s12. These long-term trends of declining cool-season rainfall across southern Australia are expected to continue if greenhouse gas emissions remain high15,16.
Forest Fire Danger Index
December 2019 had the highest fire potential of any month since Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) records began in 195014. The FFDI is a metric calculated using temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and a drought factor to represent fuel availability. Days with high FFDI are indicative of conditions where fuels burn readily and fire containment is less likely, leading to large fires that travel long distances17 as seen across broad swathes of southern and eastern Australian in 2019/201.
Changes to Australia’s bushfire season
Human-caused climate change has already contributed to more dangerous weather conditions for bushfires in Australia18-19. This includes observed trends towards more dangerous conditions during summer, and an earlier start and later end to the fire season, particularly in southern and eastern Australia18-20. The frequency of major bushfires in southeast Australia has approximately doubled since 190021. Urgent studies to quantify how much additional risk human-caused climate change brought to the 2019/20 fire season in Australia have already begun22.
Further lengthening of the fire season and more frequent and more extreme fire-weather are expected into the future due to ongoing human-caused climate change23,24. Fire management measures such as hazard reduction burning are of diminishing effectiveness under extreme wildfire conditions25,26. The future availability of suitable hazard reduction burning days is highly uncertain27.
Fire-induced weather (PyroCb events)
Large, intense fires can develop thunderstorms in their plumes — a phenomenon known as pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb). PyroCb events are characterised by erratic fire behaviour, swarms of embers, lightning, and strong and variable winds. Large pyroCb events can have catastrophic impacts on society and the environment, as seen for the 2009 Black Saturday and 2003 Canberra bushfires.
There has been a steady increase in the frequency of pyroCb events recorded over southeastern Australia since monitoring began in the late 1990s21. During the 2019/20 bushfires, approximately 30 pyroCb events have been observed so far, grossly exceeding the number of events to have occurred in any previous year28. This is consistent with observed climate trends over the last several decades towards more dangerous weather conditions that are conducive to pyroCb development21,29. Climate models indicate that ongoing warming will cause further increases in the potential for extreme bushfires with pyroconvective conditions over southeast Australia23,30.
Climate variability that contributes to Australia’s fire risk
Variability in the climate from one year to the next acts on top of long-term human-caused climate warming and regional rainfall trends, and is an important contributor to Australia’s climate extremes. Human-caused climate change is altering this variability in ways that can further increase Australia’s fire risk:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading cause of natural year-to-year variability in Australian weather, with El Niño events generally causing an increased risk of dangerous bushfire conditions18,31. It is noteworthy that the 2019/20 extreme fires occurred despite the absence of a strong El Niño event. However, extreme El Niño and La Niña events are expected to increase in frequency through the 21st century32-34, which may also intensify bushfire hazards in the future.
During 2019 a very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean, and contributed to the extreme heat and extreme dry conditions experienced across Australia during the second half of 2019. There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of positive IOD events since the 1960s35-37, which has worsened drought and fire risk in southeastern Australia38,39. It is projected that similar strong positive IOD events will be three-times more frequent in the 21st Century compared to the 20th Century with continued high greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of effective climate policies40,41.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has become more positive since the mid-20th Century, caused by both rising greenhouse gases and ozone depletion15,42-44. A more positive SAM has resulted in a shift in the storm tracks that bring rain bearing systems across southern Australia and caused a long-term decline in winter rainfall across southern states5,12,15. This rainfall decline is expected to continue into the future, but has the potential to be reversed through strong greenhouse gas mitigation that halts further warming and stabilises global climate15,16.
During spring and summer of 2019 a rare sudden stratospheric warming event occurred over Antarctica and caused the SAM to temporarily shift to a negative state. A negative SAM at this time of year increases the forest fire danger in eastern Australia by reducing cloud cover and drawing hot and dry air across the continent to the eastern states45. It is not yet known if climate change will alter sudden stratospheric warming events over Antarctica in the future.
Communication of climate change impacts on bushfire risk
Scientists have studied and communicated the increasing risks that climate change will bring in Australia and other continents in the form of altered fire regimes for more than three decades. This includes reports prepared at the request of governments to aid in policy decisions.
Observed changes in Australian climate and fires, including the 2019/20 fire crisis, have confirmed scientific warnings that human-caused climate warming is virtually certain to increase the duration, intensity and frequency of fires in southeast Australia5,24,46,47. These trends will continue to worsen with ongoing climate warming and changes in extreme weather phenomena, making fire management increasingly challenging5.
Urgent and ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is needed if we are to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in accordance with the Paris Agreement13. Current Australian and global emission reductions are not sufficient, and Australia’s current emissions per person are near-to the highest in the world.
Scientific evidence indicates a need for immediate action to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions and manage a rapid transition to net zero emissions by 205013 if we are to limit the many climate change risks facing the Australian people, economy and environment. Australia has an important role to play in reducing our total emissions, while also taking a leadership role in international climate negotiations to foster a spirit of global cooperation and urgent action on climate change at the level documented in the scientific assessment of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C13.
Globally coordinated greenhouse gas emission reduction would curtail further climate change-related intensification of Australia’s bushfire risk, and give fire management and adaptation measures the best chance of success.
This open letter was co-signed by research scientists with expertise across the fields of climate, fire and weather science (including physical processes and impacts). Hyperlinks are provided for the team of scientists who coordinated the development of this statement.
446 total co-signatories (23:30 AEST, 7th February 2020).
In order of signing:
Tanya Lippmann (PhD candidate, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; firstname.lastname@example.org)
Nerilie Abram (Professor, Australian National University; email@example.com)
Jason Sharples (Professor, University of New South Wales; firstname.lastname@example.org)
Hamish Clarke (Dr, University of Wollongong and Western Sydney University)
Alex Sen Gupta (Associate Professor, University of New South Wales; email@example.com)
Katrin Meissner (Professor, University of New South Wales)
Matthias Boer (Associate Professor, Western Sydney University)
Ben Henley (Dr, Monash University, University of Melbourne)
Eelco Rohling (Professor, Australian National University)
Nigel Tapper (Professor, Monash University)
Lisa Alexander (Professor, University of New South Wales)
Robert Sawyer (Dr, University of Wollongong)
Hamish Mcgowan (Professor, University of Queensland)
Marta Yebra (Dr, Australian National University)
Jeremy Russell-Smith (Professor, Charles Darwin University)
Brett Murphy (Associate Professor, Charles Darwin University)
Pauline Grierson (Associate Professor, University of Western Australia)
Rachael Nolan (Dr, Western Sydney University)
Trent Penman (Associate Professor, University of Melbourne)
Luke Collins (Dr, La Trobe University)
Meaghan Jenkins (Dr, University of Wollongong)
Mark Howden (Professor, Australian National University)
Beatriz Duguy Pedra (Professor, Universidad de Barcelona)
Joelle Gergis (Senior Lecturer In Climate Science, The Australian National University)
Anthony Purcell (Research Fellow, Research School of Earth Sciences)
Taimoor Sohail (Research Associate, The University of New South Wales)
Patrick De Deckker (Emeritus Professor, Australian National University)
Adele Morrison (Arc Decra Research Fellow, Australian National University)
Jon Woodhead (Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow, The University of Melbourne)
Leanne Armand (Assoc. Prof., Australian National University)
Andrew Mackintosh (Professor/ PhD, Monash University)
Yiling Liu (PhD Candidate, UNSW)
Mike Sandiford (Redmond Barry Distinguished Professor, Faa, University of Melbourne)
Malte Meinshausen (A/Prof, Climate & Energy College, The University of Melbourne)
Stewart Fallon (Associate Professor, Australian National University)
Caroline Poulsen (Dr, Monash University)
John Wiseman (Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute and Energy Transition Hub, and University of Melbourne and ANU)
Bradley Opdyke (Dr, The Australian National University)
Roger Dargaville (Senior Lecturer, Monash University)
Mark Quigley (Associate Professor, University of Melbourne)
Gab Abramowitz (Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney)
Anna Ukkola (Dr, Australian National University)
Damien Irving (Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of New South Wales)
Alejandro Di Luca (Climate Scientist, University of New South Wales)
Laurie Menviel (Arc Future Fellow, Senior Lecturer, UNSW)
Matthew England (Professor, UNSW)
Helen Bostock (Associate Professor In Oceanography, University of Queensland)
Christopher Thomas (Dr, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW)
Chris Forest (Professor Of Climate Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University)
Philip Stewart (Dr, The University of Queensland)
Jonathan Overpeck (Professor And Dean, University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability)
Steven Sherwood (Professor, UNSW Sydney)
Josephine Brown (Lecturer, University of Melbourne)
Kimberley Reid (PhD Researcher, University of Melbourne)
Daniel Ellerton (PhD, University of Queensland)
Jessica Reeves (Senior Lecturer, Environmental Science, Federation University Australia, Gippsland Campus)
Jatin Kala (Senior Lecturer, Murdoch University)
Tomas Remenyi (Climate Research Fellow, University of Tasmania, Climate Futures Program)
Scott Mooney (A/Prof, School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney)
Andreas Schmittner (Professor, Oregon State University)
Justin Marshall (Arc Laureate Professor, University of Queensland)
Chloe Lucas (Dr, University of Tasmania)
Grant Williamson (Dr, University of Tasmania)
Ariaan Purich (Dr, University of New South Wales)
Kerrylee Rogers (Associate Professor, University of Wollongong)
Katharine Grant (Dr, The Australian National University)
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (Dr, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW)
Tessa Vance (PhD, University of Tasmania)
Jing-Jia Luo (Professor, Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China)
Michael Mann (Distinguished Professor Of Atmospheric Science And Director Of The Earth System Science Center, Penn State University)
Sharon Robinson (Professor/ PhD, University of Wollongong)
Bronwyn Dixon (PhD, University of Melbourne)
Peter Gell (Professor Of Environmental Science, Federation University Australia)
Amy Prendergast (Dr/ Senior Lecturer/ Arc Decra Fellow, School of Geography, University of Melbourne)
Julie Arblaster (Associate Professor, Monash University)
Michael Bird (Distinguished Professor, James Cook UNiversity)
Bill Pritchard (Professor Of Geography, University of Sydney)
Ian Simmonds (Professor, The University of Melbourne)
Dale Dominey-Howes (Professor Of Hazard And Disaster Risk Sciences, The University of Sydney)
Anthony Dosseto (Professor, University of Wollongong)
Laurie Chisholm (Associate Professor, University of Wollongong)
Dietmar Muller (Professor Of Geophysics, The University of Sydney)
Annette Hirsch (Dr, University of New South Wales)
Haidee Cadd (Dr., University of New South Wales)
David Griffith (Professor / PhD, University of Wollongong)
Kale Sniderman (PhD, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne)
John Church (Professor, Climate Change, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales)
Asfawossen Asrat (Professor, School of Earth Sciences, Addis Ababa University)
Duanne White (Associate Professor, University of Canberra)
James Renwick (Professor/PhD In Atmospheric Science, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences)
Cristiano Chiessi (Associate Professor, University of São Paulo)
Nicolas Jourdain (Research Scientist, CNRS, IGE, Grenoble, France)
Russell Drysdale (Associate Professor/Reader In Palaeoclimatology, University of Melbourne)
Sebastian Wahl (PhD, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)
Hubertus Fischer (Professor, University of Bern)
Michela Mariani (Dr, University of Melbourne/University of Nottingham)
Fortunat Joos (Prof. Dr., University of Bern)
Boris Vanniere (Dr, CNRS)
Thomas Wiedmann (Professor, University of New South Wales)
Kathryn Allen (PhD, University of Melbourne)
Tobias Bayr (Dr., GEOMAR Helmholtz-Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany)
Thomas Frölicher (Professor, University of Bern)
Olivia Martius (Professor, University of Bern)
Ivy Frenger (Research Scientist, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)
Martin Frank (Professor For Chemical Paleoceanography, GGEOMAR Research Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germanyz)
Joakim Kjellsson (Junior Professor For Meteorology, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)
Matthias Prange (Dr. / Senior Climate Researcher), MARUM, University of Bemen, Germany)
Manola Brunet (Full Professor In Climatology, University Rovira i Virgili)
Srijana Lama (PhD, Vrije University)
Rebecca Harris (Senior Lecturer (Climatology), PhD, University of Tasmania)
David Bowman (Professor, University of Tasmania)
Matthias Zabel (Dr., MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences – Bremen University)
Andreas Oschlies (Professor, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany)
Mandy Freund (Dr., University of Melbourne)
Linden Ashcroft (PhD, The University of Melbourne)
Inge G.C. Jonckheere (Forestry Officer, IPCC Lead Author)
Matilde Rusticucci (Professor, University of Buenos Aires)
Andrea Franke (Dr., Geomar Helmholtz Centre fo Ocean Research Kiel)
Diederik Liebrand (Dr, University of Bremen)
Stephan Krisch (PhD Candidate, GEOMAR Helmholtz Institute for Ocean Research)
Kim Cobb (Professor, Georgia Institute of Technology)
Mat Collins (Prof, University of Exeter, UK)
Gerrit Lohmann (Prof, Alfred Wegener Institute)
Evan Gowan (Dr. / Postdoctoral Researcher, Alfred Wegener Institute)
Christopher Danek (PhD, Alfred-Wegener-Institute Germany)
Helge Goessling (Dr., Alfred Wegener Institute)
Hu Yang (Dr., The Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
Klaus Hubacek (Professor, University of Groningen)
Amy Hessl (Professor Of Geography, West Virginia University)
Sander Veraverbeke (Assistant Professor, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Timothy Bralower (Professor, Penn State University)
Erica Smithwick (Professor, The Pennsylvania State University)
Alvaro Montenegro (Associate Professor, Ohio State University)
Barbara Templ (PhD, Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Research)
Fabian Stenzel (PhD Student, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Frank Kauker (Dr., Alfred Wegener Intitute for Polar and Marine Resarch)
Matthias Wietz (Senior Scientist, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)
James Kasting (Evan Pugh Professor Of Geosciences, Penn State University)
Jelle Bijma (Prof. Dr., Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)
Willy Tinner (Professor, University of Bern)
Stephan Juricke (PhD, Jacobs University Bremen/Alfred Wegener Institute Bremerhaven, Germany)
Abel Chemura (Dr., Potsdam Instutute of Climate Impact Research)
Maie-France Loutre (Dr, PAGES (Past Global Changes))
Georg Feulner (Dr., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany)
Peter Wilf (Professor Of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University)
Ali Behrangi (Associate Professor, University of Arizona)
Juliane Mueller (PhD, Alfred Wegener Institute)
Maria-Elena Vorrath (Msc, Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany)
Gregg Garfin (Associate Professor, University of Arizona)
Stefan Rahmstorf (Professor, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Karen Kohfeld (Professor, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, CANADA)
Valérie Masson-Delmotte (Dr, IPSL/LSCE)
Bradford Griffin (University Research Associate, Simon Fraser University)
Tobias Ide (Decra Fellow, University of Melbourne)
Chris Funk (Director, Climate Hazards Center, US Geological Survey, University of California, Santa Barbara)
Hinrich Schaefer (Atmospheric Scientist, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NZ)
Fanny Thornton (Assistant Professor, University of Canberra)
Roger Bodman (Research Fellow In Climate Modelling, The University of Melbourne)
James Barker (PhD Student, University of Wollongong)
Eleni Anagnostou (Post Doctoral Fellow, GEOMAR)
Kate Booth (Senior Lecturer In Human Geography, University of Tasmania)
Patrick Lane (Professor, The University of Melbourne)
Jason Evans (Professor, UNSW)
Donna Green (A/Prof, UNSW)
Helen Phillips (Associate Professor, IMAS, University of Tasmania)
James Kossin (Atmospheric Scientist PhD, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate and U. of Wisconsin)
Mark Westoby (Professor Emeritus, Faa, Faaas, Macquarie University)
Will Steffen (Emeritus Professor, The Australian National University)
Zanna Chase (Associate Professor, University of Tasmania)
Andrea Taschetto (Senior Researcher, University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre)
Michael Bedward (Mr, University of Wollongong)
John Tibby (Associate Professor, University of Adelaide)
Jonathan Tyler (Senior Lecturer/PhD, University of Adelaide)
Jennie Mallela (Dr, Australian National University)
Jane Williamson (Associate Professor, Macquarie University)
Sander Scheffers (Dr, Southern Cross University)
Pat Hutchings (PhD, Dsc, • Frzsnsw , • Frsnsw, Australian Museum)
Gal Eyal (PhD, University of Queensland/Bar-Ilan University)
Selina Ward (Dr (Senior Lecturer), The University of Queensland)
Cameron Barr (Dr, University of Adelaide)
Paul Kristiansen (Associate Professor Of Agricultural Systems, University of New England)
Robert Mason (Dr., University of Queensland)
Ana Vila-Concejo (PhD In Oceanography / Associate Professor, The University of Sydney)
Giuseppe Cortese (Ph.D. Paleontology, GNS Science (New Zealand))
Adriana Verges (Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney)
James Gilmour (Dr, Marine Biology)
Kevin Walsh (Professor, University of Melbourne)
Nick Earl (PhD, University of Tasmania, Climate Futures program)
Ross Griffiths (Emeritus Professor, Australian National University)
Anja Rammig (Professor, Technical University of Munich)
Sabine Haase (Dr. Rer. Nat., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)
Stefan Brönnimann (Professor, University of Bern, Switzerland)
Robert Warren (Dr (PhD In Atmospheres, Oceans And Climate), Monash University)
Jan Taucher (PhD, GEOMAR)
Christian Stepanek (Dr. Rer. Nat. / Scientist, Alfred Wegener Institute – Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
Kirsten Thonicke (Dr., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))
Kathryn Bowen (Hon. Assoc Professor, Australian National University)
Karen Lebek (Dipl.-Geoecologist, Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems)
Adrien Guyot (Dr, PhD, Monash University)
Henrik Sadatzki (PhD, Australian National University)
Hayley Fowler (Professor Of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University)
Andrew Western (Professor, University of Melbourne)
Abdullah Kahraman (Research Scientist, Newcastle University)
Rien Aerts (Professor, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Juul Limpens (Associate Professor, Wageningen University, the Netherlands)
Paulo Pereira (Professor, Mykolas Romeris Univeristy, Lithuania)
Simon Scheiter (Dr, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Research Centre)
Renata Libonati (Professor Dr., Dep. Meteorology – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro UFRJ)
Sandy Harrison (Professor, The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, and Reading University)
Matthew Jones (Dr / PhD, University of East Anglia)
David Schoeman (Professor, University of the Sunshine Coast)
Pete Smith (Professor, Frs, Frse, University of Aberdeen)
Klaus Bittermann (PhD, PIK guest)
Susan Solomon (Lee And Geraldine Martin Professor Of Environmental Studies, MIT)
Carles Pelejero (Dr., ICREA and Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC)
Gerald Moser (Dr., Plant Ecology, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany)
Stephen Blenkinsop (Dr., Newcastle University, UK)
Nicholas Mccarthy (Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Queensland)
Jennifer Marlon (Research Scientist, Yale University)
Francois Girard (Professor In Geography, Université de Montréal)
Drew Shindell (Distinguished Professor, Duke University, NC, USA)
Grant Meyer (Professor Emeritus, University of New Mexico)
Renaud Barbero (Research Scientist, INRAE)
Steven Lade (PhD, Stockholm Universty / Australian National University)
Dominique Bachelet (Associate Professor, Oregon State University)
Maria Val Martin (Dr, Leverhulme Center for Climate Change Mitigation, University of Sheffield)
Anabelle Cardoso (Dr, Yale University)
Mark Bush (Professor, Florida Institute of Technology)
James Clark (Ecologist, Professor, Duke University)
Berangere Leys (Research Associate, Aix-Marseille University)
Juli Pausas (Research Scientist, Ecologist, CSIC, Spain)
Martin Girardin (Research Scientist, Natural Resources Canada)
Allan Spessa (Dr, Dept Geography, Swansea University, Wales, UK)
Stijn Hantson (Dr., University of California, Irvine)
Stephanie Desprat (Maitre De Conferences (Lecturer), EPOC LAB, Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes – University of Bordeaux – CNRS)
Monica Turner (E.P. Odum Professor Of Ecology, And Vilas Research Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Stefan Doerr (Professor, Swansea University)
Katarzyna Marcisz (PhD, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland)
Douglas Kelley (Dr, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)
Jennifer Pierce (Associate Professor, Boise State University)
Elisabeth Dietze (Dr., Alfred-Wegener-Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Potsdam, Germany)
Andrew Kiss (Dr, Australian National University)
Daniel Balanzategui (PhD Student, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany)
Yannick Le Page (Researcher, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Lisboa, Portugal)
Melanie Zeppel (Dr, PhD, Macquarie University)
Eva Calvo (Research Scientist, Marine Science Institute, ICM-CSIC)
John Veron (Dr, NGO Coral Reef Research)
José Miguel Pereira (Professor, Forest Research Centre, ULisbon)
Werner Kurz (PhD, Adjunct Professor, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.)
Joe Melton (Research Scientist, Environment and Climate Change Canada)
Agus Santoso (Senior Research Scientist, UNSW)
Janelle Stevenson (Associate Professor, Australian National University)
Simon Connor (Researcher, Australian National University)
Patrick Moss (Professor, The University of Queensland)
Peter Kershaw (Emeritus Professor, Monash University)
Niels Andela (Dr., Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA)
Annette Cowie (Dr/PhD, Adjunct Professor University of New England)
Janette Lindesay (Professor, The Australian National University)
Angie Haslem (Dr, La Trobe University)
Juan Carlos Jimenez (PhD In Physics, Associate Professor, University of Valencia (Spain))
Guy Robinson (Senior Lecturer, Department of Natural Sciences, Fordham University, New York, NY10023, USA)
Sanaa Hobeichi (PhD, The University of New South Wales)
Paul Durack (Research Scientist, Climate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Noel Cressie (Distinguished Professor, Universityof Wollongong)
Abha Sood (Climate Scientist, PhD (Theoretical Physics), NIWA, New Zealand)
Gabriel Pontes (PhD Candidate, University of Sao Paulo – Brazil)
Melissa Hart (Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney)
Andy Baker (Professor, UNSW)
Rob Harcourt (Professor/ PhD, Cambridge, Macquarie University)
Lise Missiaen (Postdoctoral Research Associate, Climate Research Centre – UNSW Sydney)
Sheldon Rey Boco (PhD Researcher, Philippine Jellyfish Stings project)
Lutz Breuer (Professor, Justus Liebig University Giessen)
Adam Switzer (Associate Professor And Associate Chair, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University)
Andrea Dutton (Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Robyn Schofield (Dr, Director of Environmental Science hub, University of Melbourne)
Albert Van Dijk (Professor, Australian National University)
Ryan Tangney (Post Doctoral Researcher, UNSW)
Leonardo Peres (Professor, Dept. Meteorology – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)
Paulo Fernandes (Associate Professor, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (Portugal))
Carolina Adler (PhD, Director, Mountain Research Initiative (MRI), University of Bern)
Judith Fisher (Dr, University of Western Australia/Fisher Research Pty Ltd)
Wolfgang Cramer (Professor, CNRS -IMBE)
Mary-Anne Lea (Associate Professor, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania)
Derek Fabel (Ams Scientist And Senior Lecturer, SUERC, University of Glasgow)
Cathelijne Stoof (Dr., Wageningen University. Creator and leader of the PyroLife Innovative Training Network)
Regina Rodrigues (Associate Professor, Dept. Oceanography, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil)
Jennifer Hollis (Research Officer And Fire Behaviour Analyst, State government)
Hervé Cochard (Dr, INRAE, Clermont Auvergne University)
Arthur Gessler (Professor, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research)
David Foster (Director, Harvard Forest Harvard University)
Thomas Swetnam (Regents Professor Emeritus, University of Arizona)
Sandra Schuster (Advisor/Adaptation Specialist/Ipccleadauthor/Dr, GIZ GmbH)
Dawn Wright (Professor Of Geography, Oregon State University)
Han Dolman (Professor, Free University Amsterdam)
Edwin Haas (Senior Scientist Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
Kathrin Wuttig (Postdoc, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania)
Nathaniel Bindoff (Prof., University of Tasmania)
Peter Knippertz (Professor Of Meteorology, Monash University (from March 2020))
Anthony Richardson (Professor, Climate Change Ecologist, University of Queensland)
Andy Reisinger (PhD, New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre)
Nuno Guiomar (Researcher, MED-Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development – University of Évora (Portugal))
Stuart Godfrey (Chief Research Scientist, Csiro Marine & Atmospheric Research, Retired)
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Professor, University of Queensland)
Janet Wilmshurst (Associate Professor, University of Auckland and Landcare Research, NZ)
Anya Salih (Senior Research Fellow Adjunct, Western Sydney University)
Karyn Bosomworth (Dr, RMIT University)
Ned Haughton (Climate Scientist, Climate Risk)
Javier Leon (Senior Lecturer In Physical Geography, USC)
Eric Steig (Professor And Chair, University of Washington)
Soeren Thomsen (Dr, Sorbonne University)
Rishav Goyal (PhD Candidate, University of New South Wales)
Scott Heron (Associate Professor, James Cook University)
James Byrne (Professor, University of Lethbridge)
Ross Coleman (Professor, The University of Sydney)
Philip O’Brien (PhD (Geology), Macquarie University Department of Environmental Science)
Paul Hearty (Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences)
Mia Gross (Dr, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW)
Coulson Lantz (Dr., University of New South Wales)
Jozef Syktus (Principal Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland)
Margot Bador (Dr, University of New South Wales)
Richard Hobbs (Professor, University of Western Australia)
Paul Tregoning (Professor, Australian National University)
Jon Day (PhD Candidate, James Cook University)
Mathew Lipson (PhD, UNSW Sydney)
Michael Hutchinson (Emeritus Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University)
Andrew Glikson (B.Sc, M.Sc., Ph.D, Visiting Fellow)
George Wilson (Professor, Australian National University)
Rowena Ball (A/Prof, Australian National University)
Penny Sackett (Professor, Climate Change Institute, Australian National University)
Geoffrey Hope (Emeritus Professor, Australian National University)
Quentin Grafton (Professor, The Australian National University)
Ian Noble (Emeritus Professor, Australian National University)
Liz Hanna (Dr PhD, Mph, Ba, Rccn, Rn, Fphaa, Facn, Australian National Univerrsity)
Roger Jones (Professorial Research Fellow, Victoria University)
Neville Nicholls (Emeritus Professor, MONASH University)
Daniel Gilfillan (Dr, ANU & ICEM (International Centre for Environmental Management))
Kylie Scales (PhD Marine Science, University of the Sunshine Coast)
Claudia Munera (PhD Candidate, Australian National University)
Michael Rawlins (Associate Professor, University of Massachusetts)
Tim Cohen (Associate Professor – Arc Future Fellow, University of Wollongong)
Nicholas Wilson (PhD Student, University of Wollongong)
Tom Kompas (Professor, ANU)
Bill Hare (Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University)
Timothy Barrows (Professor, University of Wollongong)
Robert Costanza (Professor And Vc’S Chair In Public Policy, Australian National University)
Zicheng Yu (Prof. Dr., Lehigh University)
Michael Taylor (Ph.D., Formerly Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK)
Noel Preece (Adj. Associate Professor, James Cook University)
David Freudenberger (Honorary Fellow, PhD, Board Member, Society for Ecological Restoration Australasia)
Matthew Brookhouse (Senior Lecturer, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University)
Susanne Schmidt (Dr, Professor In Plant Nutrition And Ecophysiology, The University of Queensland)
Imran Ahmad (Honorary Associate Professor, Australian National University)
Stefan Vogel (Former Senior Ice Sheet Scientist, Ph.D Earth Sciences Uc-Santa Cruz, Glaciology Tasmania, formerly Australian Antarctic Division)
Cassandra Rowe (Dr., James Cook University)
Edward Doddridge (Dr, IMAS, University of Tasmania)
Graham Ashford (Dr, University of the Sunshine Coast)
Libby Robin (Emeritus Professor, Australian National University)
Matthew Colloff (Honorary Senior Lecturer, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University)
Sandra Penman (PhD Candidate, The University of Melbourne)
Philippe Ciais (Dr, LSCE)
Willem Huiskamp (Postdoctoral Researcher, PIK)
Kathleen Harazin (PhD Candidate, The Australian National University)
Lesley Hughes (Professor, Macquarie University & Climate Council of Australia)
Mitchell Stares (Bconsbio(Hons), PhD Candidate, University of Wollongong)
Angelica Feurdean (Scientific Reseacher, Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University , Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Martin Losch (Dr., Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)
Jörn Behrens (Prof., Universität Hamburg)
Paul Valdes (Professor Of Physical Geography, University of Bristol, UK)
Bethany Ellis (PhD Candidate, Australian National University)
Mel Fitzpatrick (Doctorate In Atmospheric Physics, Climate Tasmania)
Levent Kurnaz (Prof. Climate Science, Bogazici University)
Karl Vernes (Associate Professor, University of New England)
Philip Zylstra (Adjunct Associate Professor, Curtin University, University of Wollongong)
Nigel Andrew (Professor Of Entomology, University of New England)
Cagatay Tavsanoglu (PhD, Hacettepe University)
Rius Damien (Research Scientist, Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement, CNRS, France)
Joel Pedro (Dr, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania)
Daniele Colombaroli (Lecturer, Royal Holloway University of London)
Clare Murphy (Professor, University of Wollongong)
Christopher Lyon (Dr, University of Leeds, UK)
Aaron Greenville (Dr, The University of Sydney)
Sam Rabin (Postdoc, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany)
Md Kamrul Hasan (PhD Candidate, University of New England)
Bogdan Onac (Professor/Karst Geologist & Paleoclimatologist, Karst Research Group, University of South Florida, USA)
Laurent Bremond (Lecturer, EPHE, France)
Ray Wills (Prof, UWA)
Eric Wolff (Professor (Frs), University of Cambridge)
Simon Haberle (Professor, Australian National University)
Suzanne O’Connell (Professor, Wesleyan University)
Reed Scherer (Distinguished Research Professor, Northern Illinois University)
Ross Powell (Professor, Northern Illinois University)
John (Jack) Williams (Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Helen Amanda Fricker (Professor, Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
David Schneider (Project Scientist Ii, National Center for Atmospheric Research)
David Mackay (Dr, UNE)
Andy Hennebelle (PhD Candidate, Université de Montréal)
Kathryn Fitzsimmons (Dr/Research Group Leader, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry)
Jorge Saturno (Ph.D., Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt)
Christopher Caldow (Dr., University of Wollongong, Australia, now at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), France)
Jacquelyn Gill (Associate Professor, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine)
Paul Osmond (Associate Professor, University of New South Wales)
Robert Wright (Dr, Botany Department, University of New England)
Amelie Meyer (Dr, University of Tasmania)
Alison O’Donnell (Dr, The University of Western Australia)
Martin Brummell (Post-Doctoral Fellow, University of New England)
Euan Ritchie (Associate Professor In Wildlife Ecology And Conservation, Deakin University)
Michael Ashcroft (Dr, University of Wollongong)
Petra Marschner (Prof., University of Adelaide)
Michelle Mckemey (PhD Candidate, University of New England)
David Mckirdy (Associate Professor (Retired), Visiting Research Fellow, University of Adelaide)
Liz Dovey (Master Of Climate Change, ANU Fenner School of Environment & Society)
Delwyn Jones (Director Sustainability Assessment, The Evah Institute)
Philip Kokic (Professor, ANU)
Amy Dougherty (Dr, Univeristy of Wollongong)
Swanni T. Alvarado (PhD, Universidad Estadual do Maranhão, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agricultura e Ambiente)
Deborah Bower (Lecturer, University of New England)
Alicia Lloyd (Dr, University of Technology Sydney)
Nikos Koutsias (Associate Professor, University of Patras, Department of Environmental Engineering, Greece)
Nadiezhda Cabral (Research Scientist Modelling And Cc, INIFAP)
Perpetua Turner (Dr, University of Tasmania)
Erinne Stirling (Postdoctoral Fellow, Zhejiang University)
Patrick Meir (Professor, The Australian National University)
C. E. Timothy Paine (Dr, University of New England)
Wolfgang Knorr (Research Scientist, Lund University, Sweden)
Angelika Heil (Dr., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)
Alan York (Professor, University of Melbourne)
Laurence Mccook (Head Of Oceans Conservation / Adjunct Principal Research Associate, Worldwide Fund for Nature, Hong Kong; James Cook University)
Zebedee Nicholls (Master Of Physics, Climate & Energy College, The University of Melbourne)
Ricky Spencer (Associate Professor Of Ecology/PhD, Western Sydney University)
Tim Doherty (Dr, Deakin University)
Kate Parr (Professor Of Tropical Ecology, University of Liverpool)
Colin Trainor (Adjunct Fellow/PhD, Charles Darwin University)
John Dodson (Professor, University of Wollongong and Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Shannon Currie (Dr, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research)
Apostolos Voulgarakis (Reader, Imperial College London)
Douglas J. Hallett (Research Fellow, Biogeoscience Institute at The University of Calgary)
Don Driscoll (Professor, Deakin University)
Andy Leigh (Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney)
Jennifer Firn (Professor In Plant Ecology/Vp Ecological Society Of Australia, Queensland University of Technology)
Brodie Verrall (PhD Candidate, Griffith University)
David Combosch (Assistant Professor, University of Guam)
Michael Crimmins (Professor And Extension Specialist, University of Arizona)
Glenda Wardle (Professor, The University of Sydney)
Duncan Sutherland (Dr, UNSW Canberra)
Miguel Brandão (PhD, KTH – Royal Institute of Technology)
Tina Bell (Academic, University of Sydney)
1 Nolan, R. H. et al. Causes and consequences of eastern Australia’s 2019-20 season of mega-fires. Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.14987 (2020).
2 Beer, T., Gill, A. M. & Moore, P. H. R. Australian bushfire danger under changing climatic regimes. in: Greenhouse: Planning for Climatic Change (ed G.I. Pearman) 421-427 (CSIRO Publishing, 1988).
3 Garnaut, R. The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report. (2008).
4 IPCC. Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. (2019).
5 Reisinger, A. et al. Australasia. in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds V.R. Barros et al.) Ch. 25, 1371-1438 (Cambridge University Press, 2014).
6 Jones, M. W. et al. Climate change increases the risk of wildfires. (University of East Anglia, https://sciencebrief.org/briefs/wildfires, 2020).
7 Bradstock, R. A. A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19, 145-158, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00512.x (2010).
8 Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P. & Barbero, R. Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 326-336, doi:10.1029/2018GL080959 (2019).
9 Sukumar, R., Arneth, A., Kurz, W., Sirin, A. & Verchot, L. Fire and climate change (Cross-Chapter Box 3). in: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (eds P.R. Shukla et al.) (2019).
10 Archibald, S., Roy, D. P., Van Wilgen, B. W. & Scholes, R. J. What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa. Global Change Biology 15, 613-630, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01754.x (2009).
11 IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds T.F. Stocker et al.) (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
12 Bureau of Meteorology. State of the Climate. (www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate, 2018).
13 IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. in: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (eds V. Masson-Delmotte et al.) 32 pp. (World Meteorological Organization, 2018).
14 Bureau of Meteorology. Annual climate statement 2019. (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/, 2020).
15 Delworth, T. L. & Zeng, F. Regional rainfall decline in Australia attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and ozone levels. Nature Geoscience 7, 583-587, doi:10.1038/ngeo2201 (2014).
16 Sniderman, J. M. K. et al. Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming. Nature Climate Change 9, 232-236, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0397-9 (2019).
17 Penman, T.D. et al. Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour – A simulation study. Journal of Environmental Management 131, 325-333, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.10.007 (2013).
18 Dowdy, A. J. Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57, 221-234, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1 (2018).
19 Natural Environmental Science Program. Bushfires and climate change in Australia. (http://nespclimate.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/A4_4pp_brochure_NESP_ESCC_Bushfires_FINAL_Nov11_2019_WEB.pdf, 2019).
20 Clarke, H., Lucas, C. & Smith, P. Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010. International Journal of Climatology 33, 931-944, doi:10.1002/joc.3480 (2013).
21 Sharples, J. J. et al. Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire. Climatic Change 139, 85-99, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1 (2016).
22 Phillips, N. and Nogrady, B. The race to decipher how climate change influenced Australia’s record fires. Nature, 577, 610-612. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00173-7 (2020).
23 Dowdy, A. J. et al. Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires. Scientific Reports 9, 10073, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-46362-x (2019).
24 CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology. Climate change in Australia information for Australia’s natural resource management regions: Technical Report. (www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/technical-report/, 2015).
25 Tolhurst, K. G. & McCarthy, G. Effect of prescribed burning on wildfire severity: a landscape-scale case study from the 2003 fires in Victoria. Australian Forestry 79, 1-14, doi:10.1080/00049158.2015.1127197 (2016).
26 Price, O. F., Penman, T. D., Bradstock, R. A., Boer, M. M. & Clarke, H. Biogeographical variation in the potential effectiveness of prescribed fire in south-eastern Australia. Journal of Biogeography 42, 2234-2245, doi:10.1111/jbi.12579 (2015).
27 Clarke, H. et al. Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 271, 148-157, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005 (2019).
28 McRae, R. H. D., Sharples, J. J. & Fromm, M. Linking local wildfire dynamics to pyroCb development. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 417-428, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-417-2015 (2015).
29 Dowdy, A. J. & Pepler, A. Pyroconvection Risk in Australia: Climatological Changes in Atmospheric Stability and Surface Fire Weather Conditions. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 2005-2013, doi:10.1002/2017GL076654 (2018).
30 Di Virgilio, G. et al. Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 8517-8526, doi:10.1029/2019GL083699 (2019).
31 Harris, S. & Lucas, C. Understanding the variability of Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2017. PLOS ONE 14, e0222328, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0222328 (2019).
32 Cai, W. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change 4, 111-116, doi:10.1038/nclimate2100 (2014).
33 Cai, W. et al. Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change 5, 132-137, doi:10.1038/nclimate2492 (2015).
34 IPCC. Summary for Policy Makers. in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds H.-O. Pörtner et al.) (2019).
35 Abram, N. J. et al. Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium. Nature (2020, in press).
36 Abram, N. J., Gagan, M. K., Cole, J. E., Hantoro, W. S. & Mudelsee, M. Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Nature Geoscience 1, 849-853, doi: 810.1038/ngeo1357 (2008).
37 Cai, W., Cowan, T. & Sullivan, A. Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL037604 (2009).
38 Cai, W., Cowan, T. & Raupach, M. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires. Geophysical Research Letters 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL039902 (2009).
39 Ummenhofer, C. C. et al. What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophysical Research Letters 36, L04706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036801 (2009).
40 Cai, W. et al. Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming. Nature 510, 254-258, doi:10.1038/nature13327 (2014).
41 Cai, W. et al. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming. Nature Communications 9, 1419, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6 (2018).
42 Abram, N. J. et al. Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nature Climate Change 4, 564-569, doi:10.1038/nclimate2235 (2014).
43 Dätwyler, C. et al. Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium. Climate Dynamics 51, 2321-2339, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4015-0 (2018).
44 Thompson, D. W. J. et al. Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change. Nature Geoscience 4, 741-749, doi:10.1038/ngeo1296 (2011).
45 Lim, E.-P. et al. Australian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex. Nature Geoscience 12, 896-901, doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0456-x (2019).
46 Hennessy, K. et al. Australia and NewZealand. in: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M.L. Parry et al.) 507-540 (Cambridge University Press, 2007).
47 Garnaut, R. Projecting Australian climate change. in: The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report. Ch. 5, 105–120 (2008).
Read the summary statement here.